Second Chances Don't Come Easy

In the rough and tumble love/hate game that often entangles lovers, a falling out often occurs which then recedes into a distant memory. Later on, nostalgia can reawaken their bond as memories of the old hurt inflicted dissolves away into rememberances of the good times they shared.

So it is with politics.

Just as in relationships, when the spouses, sons and daughters of fallen or discredited leaders seek to reclaim the mantle of their prominent forebears, the nagging question that often remains in the mind of every conscientious voter is, why ought I give him (or her) another chance at this?

Often times as in romantic relationships, emotions trump reason. But not always. In the lead up to the Democrat presidential nomination, former first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton would have succeeded based on a nostalgia for the prosperous 90s when her husband Bill Clinton ran the White House. Had it not been for the impressive campaign waged by Sen Obama, things might have turned out differently for Mrs Clinton.

One could argue that although able to distinguish herself as a US senator, she was not able to differentiate herself from her husband, making his perceived weaknesses and frailties a liability for her unique brand. It might be easier in third world countries where patron-client networks prevail to perpetuate political dynasties. In the West where positions of power are more contestable, two conditions are needed for a political offspring or offshoot to "make it" in the eyes of voters.

One is to distinguish themselves as individuals. Two is to offer a substantial difference. The first one has to do with stepping out of the shadow of their prominent forebears without necessarily tarnishing their good name. The second is more important in countering perceived shortcomings of their patriarch.

John and John Quincy Adams were the first father and son to both serve as US presidents. John Sr succeeded George Washington and served for only one term due to the unpopularity of some of his decisions during the Anglo-French War. His son distinguished himself in international diplomacy before turning to politics.

George W Bush distinguished himself as governor of Texas first before being considered for higher office. He also countered perceived weaknesses in the image of his father George, Sr who promised "no new taxes" during his campaign, but reneged while in office. George Jr did this by following the mould of Ronald Reagan who cut taxes during the height of the Cold War (leading to the chronic deficits that his father had to correct, ironically).

In the Philippines, a former US colony with arguably the longest experience of democracy in Asia, despite an anti dynasty provision in its constitution, a small number of dominant families seems to rotate in occupying the halls of power. Senator Benigno Aquino III son of former president Corazon Aquino is running to succeed Mrs Gloria Arroyo daughter of the late former president Diosdado Macapagal. His running mate Sen Manuel Roxas II is a grandson and namesake of another former president.

Despite his lead in the polls (which many credit to public sympathy for his late mother, the icon of the people power era who passed away last year after a bout with cancer), he is facing a stiff challenge from his colleague in the Senate Manuel Villar who was the frontrunner before Aquino joined the race.

The columnist Tony Lopez, an ardent Aquino critic, cites two main reasons why he believes Aquino has been losing support in the polls. One, despite serving for three terms in the lower house and briefly in the Senate, Lopez says Aquino has failed to leave a distinguishing mark on either chamber. Two, he also suffers from perceived weaknesses in the Aquino brand foremost of which is failing to deliver on social justice with the flawed implementation of agrarian reform, Mrs Aquino's centerpiece program.

Yet despite these hindrances, Mr Aquino still has a good chance of clinching the plurality required in a multi-party field to win the presidency. This is due in large part to the alternatives that many see are equally if not more risky propositions. They include aside from Mr Villar, a self-made billionaire with questionable business and political dealings, a convicted former president Joseph Estrada, former Defense Sec Gilberto Teodoro, an ally of the unpopular Mrs Arroyo and a few more who have languished at the bottom of the polls.

For Mr Aquino, whose poll numbers have been slipping lately, to reclaim the momentum, he would need to address the two important issues raised here. Since he cannot do anything about the lack of tangible accomplishments in the past (the claim of not being tarnished with corruption as an achievement in itself notwithstanding), a good way to start would be to roll-out some well thought out policy prescriptions, which he has begun to do. Another would be to demonstrate how he would correct some of the failings that plagued his mother's administration.

One way he can concretely do just that would be to convince his clan comprised of more than 50 members to give up their stake in Hacienda Luisita, a sugar plantation where some 10,000 families work and live. This would signal to the vast majority belonging to the poorer social strata that he intends to make a clean break with the past. It would also signal to his oligarchic friends in the business world that they cannot curry favor with him.

Until he addresses these concerns, his slogan of bringing about people empowerment and the rule of law will continue to be viewed by many with the same scepticism of a star-crossed lover.