In a 1 v 1 match-up Marcos Jr wins, but in a three cornered fight, there is a chance he loses.
Why? Because even if the remaining non-Marcos candidates withdraw in favor of Mrs Robredo, not all their votes go to her, nor will it be enough, since Marcos is polling between 50 and 60 per cent. Leni is partly the reason why he is doing so well.
Her net satisfaction level is very low, and many voters distrust her. They want to send her a clear message in this election. She spent the last six years being very critical of the administration. At one point, during the height of the Covid crisis, her supporters on social media and in the streets, were calling for the ouster of Duterte.
That is the reason why many are siding with the Marcos scion. There is no way in a two cornered race that she can peel off these voters who support Pres. Rodrigo Duterte’s government to switch to her side. If anything, the votes for Moreno, Lacson and Pacquiao might just go to Marcos Jr, not to the vice president.
Manila Mayor Isko Moreno has attracted most of the organic grassroots leaders from Duterte’s 2016 campaign to support him along with those who supported his senate bid in that year who also formed the base of Sen. Grace Poe’s presidential campaign. Many ordinary swing voters who see his achievements in Manila have also been converted to switch to his side.
This has made him a viable third force. He has actively been courting the support of Duterte’s base with his recent pronouncements on the continuation of the president’s programs, most notably Build, Build, Build. The only question that remains is whether he can convert enough of these voters to switch to his side by the time of the election.
In a three cornered fight where a third candidate has cross over appeal to win some of Pres. Duterte’s base, there could be enough erosion of Marcos Jr’s support to make him lose an electoral majority and become vulnerable. But these Duterte supporters will be hesitant to switch to a third candidate, if it would mean Mrs. Robredo has a chance of winning.
This is the clearest signal on where he stands regarding the Marcoses. He was careful not to demonize them, but to frame the issue as one of simply implementing an existing Supreme Court ruling that was final and executory.
At least, by staying in the race, Mayor Isko Moreno could weaken the support base of Marcos Jr to the point that some other candidate can win. If he withdraws, it all but guarantees that Marcos would win by a landslide, possibly becoming the first post-EDSA president-elect to win an outright majority of the vote. That is why the 2022 presidential race needs a third force.
The EDSA
narrative provides its adherents a meaningful way of making sense of the world
based on a valorizing worldview. In this narrative, the Philippines is like the
chosen people of Israel who were delivered from the bondage of dictatorship and
ushered into the promised land of freedom.
The past
five years under Duterte, would have felt like an exile to Babylon for the
opposition. Their defeat in the midterm election of 2019 signaled the prolonging
of this exile from power. The recent death of Noynoy Aquino has been used to
revive their fortunes in time for next year’s polls. So, can they return to
power in 2022?
In
opposition, the Liberals and their allies have had time to reflect. Why have
they fallen so out of favor with voters? Just like the exilic Jews who pondered
their fate in Babylon and the meaning of it. The temptation, and in fact the
norm would be to adopt the gods of their conquerors and lose their religion.
Should the political opposition do the same and bow to their fate?
Of course,
for the faithful the answer to that would be ‘no’. If so, then a plausible,
credible explanation would have to be found for why they have fallen so far
from political grace.
The
worshipping of false gods by the Israelites was the reason given by the Jews to
explain why the Lord had allowed them to be conquered. This historical
narrative allowed them to hold on to their cultural and religious beliefs despite
being in a strange land. And by remaining true to their religion, they found a
way back from exile with their identity intact. So, is there a parallel here
for the children of EDSA, and if so, then what? How can they credibly explain
their fall from power and find their way back from political oblivion?
Ninoy had
espoused a belief in Christian Socialism, which traced its roots to the
attempts of an enlightened monarch in Denmark to liberate his people from
serfdom through mass education. It was a human centered form of capitalism
aimed at affording the full blossoming of ordinary citizens to reach their
fullest potential. The success of this model is demonstrated today by
Scandinavia being one of the wealthiest, least corrupt, and happiest places on earth.
The
adoption of a neoliberal worldview by the EDSA regime with its idolatry of the
Market, espoused by Washington and mediated through market-enhancing
institutions of governance promoted by the WB and IMF, was in effect what had
caused the children of EDSA to go astray. This is what invited populist
backlashes from the left, in the form of Erap Estrada in 1998, from within,
with the apostasy of Gloria Arroyo in 2004, and from the right, with the
ascendancy of Rody Duterte in 2016.
Vice Pres.
Robredo for her part has emphasized the dynamism of the private sector for
collective action by brokering donations between corporate foundations and
needy communities. She has not lasted long in any of the public roles assigned
to her, first as housing czar then as co-chair of the Inter-agency Committee on
Anti-Illegal Drugs, preferring instead to become a maverick policy
entrepreneur.
Her support
for marginalized communities through her ‘Angat Buhay program’ is still
consistent with a neoliberal view that public investment merely crowds out
charitable spending. It is consistent with a minimalist role for the state,
relying on the magic of markets to broker the needs of society through
voluntary, altruistic donations by moneyed elite: trickle-down economics, in
effect. Government by NGO.
Duterte
didn’t mind breaking with this tradition. He didn’t kowtow to the international
rules-based order when dealing with the West Philippine Sea or human rights
issue. He in effect defiled the sacred cows before which the EDSA forces fall prostrate.
He offered
instead a kind of tough love for the development of the Filipino by focusing on
the social ills that have come about because of the aimless accumulation of
wealth in the pursuit of materialist, consumerist culture. This tyranny of
freedom, of unconstrained choice fostered by free markets, has only led to
alienation, apathy and addictive forms of behavior.
Duterte, in
acting like a strict father establishing boundaries and disciplining his
children has stepped into the breach because while the EDSA narrative
structured our political and economic ways of life, it had nothing to offer us
from a social standpoint. Neither did the post-EDSA regime engage in the
necessary work of political and electoral reforms needed to truly democratize
participation in our society.
With the
recent passing of Noynoy Aquino, his former confidante Rep. Joey Salceda
offered an assessment of his legacy. He praised him for accomplishing many
noble things, but also said that PNoy suffered from a lack of ambition due to
his ‘worldview’. He had the most favorable macroeconomic conditions, but failed
to seize the opportunities these presented. This lack of ambition was his
cardinal policy failing.
This is
what obscured the original agapic vision of Noynoy’s father for a human
centered form of development. This idolatry of the market is the folly that has
led to their political exile, so it behooves the children of EDSA to return to
The Source for inspiration.
If Duterte
represents a consumptive love of country - a form of governance that destroys
human life to preserve it, that breaks the law to uphold it; and, if the EDSA
regime represents a reciprocal kind of love - a form of governance that relies
on transactional markets and padrino-based politics, then the agapic love of
country, of actualizing individuals by investing in their human capacities is
what the successor to the EDSA regime must work towards.
Only by
rediscovering this forgotten vision can the children of EDSA rescue themselves
from irrelevance. Acknowledging where they went wrong would go a long way
towards healing the partisan divide with those who were once in their broad
coalition but no longer see themselves as part of it.
The
question is, who among their leaders today would be so humble as to do that?
Dare I say none; and so, for the true
believers in Ninoy’s Impossible Dream, they may have to go outside the fold to
find a leader who can re-imagine the promise of EDSA and bring its children
back from exile into the Promised Land.
Is it true that the government's anti-drug campaign is a massive failure, as per what VP Leni Robredo stated in her report as Co-Chair of the Inter-agency Committee for the Anti-illegal Drugs?
Links referred to:
Co-Chair's Report: https://issuu.com/inquirerdotnet/docs/2034815782856108625376143966175767021
UN Office for Drugs and Crime stats: https://dataunodc.un.org/drugs
Manila Bulletin article quoted in report: https://news.mb.com.ph/2019/11/28/ph-consumes-at-least-3-tons-of-shabu-every-week-pnp/
Philippine Statistical Authority's population projections: https://psa.gov.ph/sites/default/files/attachments/hsd/pressrelease/Table4_9.pdf
Policy brief: https://cusp-ph.blogspot.com/2018/10/policy-brief-using-evidence-in.html
Social Weather Stations: https://www.sws.org.ph/swsmain/artcldisppage/?artcsyscode=ART-20191016152026
Is the opposition drawing the wrong lessons from recent elections?
Are they committing the same mistakes now, which could potentially make them obsolete in the future?
What lessons have the opposition taken away from the elections of 2016 & ‘19? Are they the right ones? What lessons could they have drawn, but are refusing to because it would mean admitting some painful truths to themselves? What are the implications for the future?
We are now about 30 days away from the 2019 midterms. In this episode we’ll be looking at the senate race, and how that has been unfolding. We compare the competing candidates' platforms, namely Otso Diretso's campaign platform and PDP-Laban's.
When you put the two parties’ positions side-by-side there is a clear contrast between them, both in terms of their overarching philosophies and approach to governance and development. Those who say that this election isn’t about ideas are wrong. There are clear battle lines here, and they are not just personality-driven.
This May a political milestone will be reached without anyone noticing. It will be twenty one years since Erap Estrada’s election as president. He won with the largest plurality ever attained up until then, using a populist slogan, “Erap para sa mahirap” (Erap for the poor).
Estrada’s presidency was brief, cut short by his own doing. Had it continued, Erap would have designated Fernando Poe, Jr (FPJ) to succeed him. Both were dispatched by the iron lady Gloria Arroyo who toppled Erap and out-maneuvered FPJ in a subsequent election.
Despite his brief stint as president, one lasting legacy of Erap is the present disdain for civil society. If his rise was fuelled by a populism, exploiting class resentments, his fall was marked by a response equally resentful of elite condescension toward those whose values are deemed primitive.
Fast-forward twenty years and we are ruled by another populist in Rodrigo Duterte who has revived the culture wars stoked in Erap’s wake.
This war is directed at those who claim to uphold democratic values, but undermine duly elected officials whose views run counter to theirs. Support comes from large swathes of our population who support his illiberal governance style.
An illiberal democracy is a state where free elections determine who rules, but where democratic mandates are used to violate constitutional rights of certain citizens, normally belonging to minority, ethnic groups. In the Philippines, the focus has been on suspected drug offenders.
Anyone who presses for the protection of their civil rights is tarred with the same brush, treated as an enemy of the state.
Duterte’s electoral victory is used to justify a deadly anti-narcotics operation nationwide. This has resulted in thousands of deaths, under questionable circumstances, according to human rights advocates.
Duterte and his followers have adopted a Hobbesian view where citizens enter a social contract for mutual preservation. In exchange for sacrifices made by citizens, like paying taxes and surrendering some freedoms, rulers establish order, using the terror of violence to punish those who trespass the rights of others within the community.
Post-EDSA administrations prior to Duterte seemed unable to uphold this part of the bargain. This is why voters saw it fit to throw out of office the so-called “yellow forces” for paying too much respect to civil liberties, not enough to establishing civic responsibilities.
Extrajudicial killings (EJK) carried out in full view are not meant to render justice. They are purposefully done to provide irrefutable proof that the ruler is performing his end of the deal. That is why Duterte has publicly owned up to the “sin” of EJKs.
This isn’t Erap’s populism anchored on class antagonism. It harks back to a pre-Enlightenment era where the legitimacy of rulers was based on their ability to preserve the peace.
The opposition may harp on about his dictatorial tendencies to de-legitimize him. But, majority of Filipinos, as indicated in opinion polls disagree with his methods, but see them as necessary. Those who oppose Duterte will have to provide viable alternatives.
That means demonstrating somewhere that liberal governments can protect communities from social ills. This is why Duterte’s labeling of Naga a haven for drugs needs to be addressed by the Liberal Party led by Vice President Leni Robredo who hails from there.
The tag “coddler of drug lords” sticks in a post-facts world. Robredo who showed an openness to the Portuguese model of decriminalizing drug use to deal with addiction, has not effectively laid out a solid case for it.
Her “Ahon Laylayan Koalisyon” (Rise up from the fringes coalition) isn’t creating a bandwagon effect like “Jeep ni Erap” (Erap’s Jeep). Other Liberals like Senator Bam Aquino seem more interested in taking pot shots at Duterte’s tax reforms. Bam, who previously banked on his “aquino-ness”, now suffers a drag in the polls due to that association.
Until the opposition addresses its law and order deficit, none of its appeals to economic populism will cut through. This is a war fought on cultural grounds. It will have to win the argument on Duterte’s turf, before it can regain legitimacy in people’s eyes to be entrusted with the reins of power again.
A year into Pres. Duterte's term, I decided to take a trip from Makati to Marikina using the MRT and LRT to see how well, or how badly it still is. Here is what I discovered.
Saturday, 22 July
6:30 am: I boarded the MRT at the Ayala Station to take the northbound train heading for Cubao. The fare was Php20 for a single trip, one way. There were not too many people yet, although I had to stand for the entire duration of my trip.
