Thursday, August 27, 2009

Poor Incentives

If you were prudent enough to save and invest your money rather than spend and borrow more money, you have probably taken a hit in your shares portfolio and will face rising inflation in the next few years as a double dip recession (a W shaped recovery) takes place, eating away at your cash holdings. The banks that have been rescued and recapitalised using reserve infusions are loath to lend under the current environment and therefore will not raise rates on cash and term deposits even as the reserve rates increase given that they are awash with cash.

If you were a rural bank, saving and loans company or credit union that maintained a healthy balance sheet and avoided risky derivatives, then you were not in line for a government guarantee or a subsidised line of credit during the height of the financial crisis. You instead would have the added burden of competing with larger subsidised commercial banks with AAA credit rating not as a result of their prudential risk taking but as a result of sovereign guarantees. Your employees have probably been faced with pay cuts or no bonuses unlike the corporate executives of the bailed out entities courtesy of taxpayer dollars.

If you are in a business that was deemed “too small to rescue” having been cautious in leveraging your operation and prudent in evaluating expansion projects, then you probably did not receive any cash handouts through the stimulus plan, unlike the relics of some old smokestack age that got heaps of support to remain open. You will probably be facing higher taxes in the coming years as the need to repay the deficits in a slower growth environment forces many governments to raise taxes from “productive” units of the economy.

If you are a relatively low polluting, eco-friendly operation, then you are definitely not going to be in line for a “free” carbon credit courtesy of the government unlike trade exposed carbon intensive industries. You instead are going to have to absorb the full cost of what little emissions your outfit produces.

Is it just me, or do others see that something is truly going haywire in the system of incentives that the current crises-busting policies have adopted (by “crises”, I mean both the GFC and the CPC or Carbon Pollution Crisis)?

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